Resolution criteria

This market resolves YES if Zhang Shengmin, a general of the Chinese People's Liberation Army Rocket Force, is expelled from the Chinese Communist Party before January 1, 2028. Resolution will be determined by official announcements from the CCP or Chinese state media confirming his expulsion. The market resolves NO if he remains a party member through December 31, 2027.

Background

On October 23, 2025, the CCP announced Zhang's elevation to the position of Vice Chairman of the Central Military Commission, making him the country's number two general. He is a Deputy Secretary of the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection, the top anti-corruption agency of the Chinese Communist Party. Zhang is a career political commissar who earned Xi's confidence by wholeheartedly carrying out the PLA purges. The formerly seven-member CMC headed by Xi has lost three members since 2023 in a string of anti-corruption probes.

Considerations

Xi elected not to grant Zhang his predecessor's concurrent seat on the Politburo, a highly unusual move that breaks with tradition and is hardly a sign of Xi's confidence in Zhang. The likely scenario is that he will step down in a few years to be replaced by a deputy. Party messaging has suggested more dismissals will come, with a party official stating that "China's fight against corruption is a protracted battle with no finish line".