Will another member of the Central Military Commission of the PRC be removed from their position before Spring 2028?
3
211
90
2028
63%
chance

Specifically before the meeting of the National People's Congress in the spring of 2028.

There are currently six/seven members of the CMC: Xi Jinping, Zhang Youxia, He Weidong, Liu Zhenli, Miao Hua and Zhang Shengmin are all members of both CMCs. Li Shangfu is only a member of the CMC of the CCP. He was removed as a member of the CMC of the PRC in October of 2023, having disappeared from public appearences two months prior to that.

What?

So, there are two parallel CMCs. They operate as one, with the same duties and meetings. However, because they are 'elected' by different bodies (the CCP's Central Committee and the PRC's National People's Congress), for certain periods (months) of the Chinese political cycle the two committees have different memberships. By convention, at these times the CMC (CCP) members meet, mainly because the Party is the true power but also because the National Congress of the Party precedes the National People's Congress.

It is to be assumed that right now Li Shangfu is not attending meetings, despite being a member of the CMC (CCP).

This question specifies the CMC (PRC) just for clarity. It seems unlikely that the distinction will actually come into play in the months between the two sets of elections.

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