Skip to main content
MANIFOLD
Will Taiwan's Defence Budget rise to 2% of GDP in 2025?
5
Ṁ70Ṁ650
resolved May 29
Resolved
N/A

Since the 1990s, Taiwan's defence spending has been at a surprisingly low level, given its geopolitical and security situation. However, this trend is ending due to Chinese military spending and aggression.

Here is some reading:

https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/taiwan-proposes-129-on-year-rise-defence-spending-2023-2022-08-25/

https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/taiwan/archives/2022/08/10/2003783290

https://digital.lib.washington.edu/researchworks/handle/1773/46343

This question will resolve based on SIPRI's data FOR 2025. Likely there will be a delay of up to a year between closing and resolution.

I have pulled current data from the SIPRI database: here are charts for spending as a percentage of GDP and in real ('21) dollar terms. I've included a range of relevant countries for context and comparison. The numbers for Taiwan are also separately tabulated.

Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!
Sort by:

@mods Creator, per his bio, "N/A-ed all markets related to Taiwan."

Note that according to the authority named in this question (SIPRI -- https://www.sipri.org/databases/milex ) the resolution of this question should be YES; Taiwan's defense expenditure increased to 2.1% of GDP in 2025.

@SEE We can fix it if YES is the correct resolution. Any counterarguments?

@dreev So, two days since you asked, and nobody's counter-argued.

As I said, the question details said the SIPRI data for 2025 would be used. That data is in, as I linked, and says Taiwan's defense spending grew to 2.1% of GDP.

@SEE I apologise, I'm happy to make all traders whole -- I should have communicated this with the mods. We are not able to resolve any of this users' markets which have been N/A'd.

There is legal risk to this user in association with these markets, and so I ask that you please leave anything in association with this particular user cancelled. I will communicate this properly with the mods now.

Sorry again!

@JoshuaWilkes Hi do you mind resolving this market?

@KarlWang these markets resolve on SIPRI data which will be released at some point later in the year (it was April last year)