Will SpaceX attempt a 'catch' with the 'chopsticks' on Starship's fifth 'orbital' test flight?
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SpaceX currently plans to catch both Booster and Starship with the 'chopstick' arms on the side of the launch tower. This is a highly complex procedure that has not been tested before, and initial attempts could be physically and finacially destructive.

This market will resolve after the completion of the fifth OFT.

Resolution criteria:

The catch attempt can be made either for the Booster or Starship itself (or both).

'Attempt' will be defined as either vehicle making a clear approach run on the catch site. If the approach is aborted before the chopsticks have moved, the attempt will still be considered valid.

It seems to me that in practice, these approach runs can be considered to have started after Booster's boostback burn, and after Starship survives atmospheric reetry and places itself on the correct trajectory. I am open to discussion on this point, but I think other criteria would be more subjective.

If SpaceX announce they will attempt a catch but the flight test fails before the above criteria are met this will resolve NO.

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'Attempt' will be defined as either vehicle making a clear approach run on the catch site. If the approach is aborted before the chopsticks have moved, the attempt will still be considered valid...It seems to me that in practice, these approach runs can be considered to have started after Booster's boostback burn

So to be clear, if SpaceX says "we're going to try a catch with the booster", and everything is nominal until the boostback burn starts, but there is an issue during the burn (e.g., multiple engines out) and the booster, as a response to that failure, ditches in the ocean very far from the landing site, it would still count as an attempt?

If would depend on whether the booster was on the correct trajectory or not at the end of the burn. If it wasn't, I think the criteria can be clearly interpreted that it should resolve NO. If it is but as you said issues arising during the burn means that after it they decide to leave that trajectory, it should resolve YES even though that will seem unsatisfying

Reportedly it was more like booster might abort the attempt. But probably open to interpretation.

bought Ṁ50 YES
opened a Ṁ10 YES at 50% order

https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1799497454812844047
Starship booster makes soft landing in water, next landing will be caught by the tower arms

sold Ṁ115 NO

Hmmmmmmmmm

bought Ṁ100 YES

@Mqrius Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm

"making a clear approach run on the catch site"
"after Booster's boostback burn, and after Starship survives atmospheric reetry and places itself on the correct trajectory"

Seems to me that the trajectory for most of the time after re-entry is completed will be aiming to hit ocean just off launch site. Only when it gets lower and can see that it has suitable control authority will it transition towards aiming at the tower. Should we discern that "the correct trajectory" includes a trajectory that is aiming to hit ocean just offshore from launch tower as opposed to just one that is aiming at the launch tower?

@ChristopherRandles yes, any trajectory that places a Super Heavy or Starship very near the tower should count

Can you clarify what counts as an orbital test flight? And therefore what the count would be up to now?

@Nat near orbit flights count and therefore we are approaching #3

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