SpaceX currently plans to catch both Booster and Starship with the 'chopstick' arms on the side of the launch tower. This is a highly complex procedure that has not been tested before, and initial attempts could be physically and finacially destructive.
This market will resolve after the completion of the fifth OFT.
Resolution criteria:
The catch attempt can be made either for the Booster or Starship itself (or both).
'Attempt' will be defined as either vehicle making a clear approach run on the catch site. If the approach is aborted before the chopsticks have moved, the attempt will still be considered valid.
It seems to me that in practice, these approach runs can be considered to have started after Booster's boostback burn, and after Starship survives atmospheric reetry and places itself on the correct trajectory. I am open to discussion on this point, but I think other criteria would be more subjective.
If SpaceX announce they will attempt a catch but the flight test fails before the above criteria are met this will resolve NO.
1,000
3.00@JoshuaWilkes SpaceX writes:
https://www.spacex.com/launches/mission/?missionId=starship-flight-5
Thousands of distinct vehicle and pad criteria must be met prior to a return and catch attempt of the Super Heavy booster, which will require healthy systems on the booster and tower and a manual command from the mission’s Flight Director. If this command is not sent prior to the completion of the boostback burn, or if automated health checks show unacceptable conditions with Super Heavy or the tower, the booster will default to a trajectory that takes it to a landing burn and soft splashdown in the Gulf of Mexico.
Perhaps this is something to watch as to whether a catch counts as an attempt or not for the purposes of this market. It sounds like there will be an explicit go-or-no-go decision near the end of the boostback burn that will determine whether to put the vehicle on a trajectory toward the launchpad for an attempt, or the Gulf of Mexico otherwise.
'Attempt' will be defined as either vehicle making a clear approach run on the catch site. If the approach is aborted before the chopsticks have moved, the attempt will still be considered valid...It seems to me that in practice, these approach runs can be considered to have started after Booster's boostback burn
So to be clear, if SpaceX says "we're going to try a catch with the booster", and everything is nominal until the boostback burn starts, but there is an issue during the burn (e.g., multiple engines out) and the booster, as a response to that failure, ditches in the ocean very far from the landing site, it would still count as an attempt?
If would depend on whether the booster was on the correct trajectory or not at the end of the burn. If it wasn't, I think the criteria can be clearly interpreted that it should resolve NO. If it is but as you said issues arising during the burn means that after it they decide to leave that trajectory, it should resolve YES even though that will seem unsatisfying
Getting hints pointing in opposite directions
https://x.com/spacex/status/1806444569107865825?s=46&t=u9hd-jMa-pv47GCVD-xH-g
https://x.com/sts1251/status/1806376121874710602
Reportedly it was more like booster might abort the attempt. But probably open to interpretation.
https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1799497454812844047
Starship booster makes soft landing in water, next landing will be caught by the tower arms
"making a clear approach run on the catch site"
"after Booster's boostback burn, and after Starship survives atmospheric reetry and places itself on the correct trajectory"
Seems to me that the trajectory for most of the time after re-entry is completed will be aiming to hit ocean just off launch site. Only when it gets lower and can see that it has suitable control authority will it transition towards aiming at the tower. Should we discern that "the correct trajectory" includes a trajectory that is aiming to hit ocean just offshore from launch tower as opposed to just one that is aiming at the launch tower?
@ChristopherRandles yes, any trajectory that places a Super Heavy or Starship very near the tower should count