SpaceX currently plans to catch both Booster and Starship with the 'chopstick' arms on the side of the launch tower. This is a highly complex procedure that has not been tested before, and initial attempts could be physically and finacially destructive.
This market will resolve after the completion of the third OFT.
Resolution criteria:
The catch attempt can be made either for the Booster or Starship itself (or both).
'Attempt' will be defined as either vehicle making a clear approach run on the catch site. If the approach is aborted before the chopsticks have moved, the attempt will still be considered valid.
It seems to me that in practice, these approach runs can be considered to have started after Booster's boostback burn, and after Starship survives atmospheric reetry and places itself on the correct trajectory. I am open to discussion on this point, but I think other criteria would be more subjective.
If SpaceX announce they will attempt a catch but the flight test fails before the above criteria are met this will resolve NO.
1,000
3.00The current FCC filing for IFT3 indicates that they'll do a powered targeted landing in the Indian Ocean. They don't have a tower there, so this market is No unless things change.
https://apps.fcc.gov/els/GetAtt.html?id=336490
@Mqrius I am pretty sure it is going to be a no but how are you ruling out catching the booster?
Elon did suggest about a year before starting to catch and so I think a few flights away but not really certain til we get more details of 3rd flight
Ah I should read
"The booster stage will separate and will then perform a partial return and land in the Gulf of Mexico. The orbital Starship spacecraft will continue on its path to an altitude of approximately 235 km before performing a powered, targeted landing in the Indian Ocean"
Still plans can change?
@ChristopherRandles Ah yeah my bad, it's late! Conflated booster and Starship in my head.
@Mqrius no its me not reading the link. "partial return and land in the Gulf of Mexico" is quite clear booster will not be caught.
@ChristopherRandles Well also me, I was incorrectly updating on it landing in the Indian Ocean, not the Gulf of Mexico part. Correct outcome via the wrong procedure :)