This market resolves YES if there is a successfully launch to orbit of a rocket not built by SpaceX with the first stage landing intact, by the close date.
The landing must be propulsive - parachutes or gliding to a runway are not allowed.
The market will resolve as soon as the landing happens. It does not actually need to be reused, just intact enough to reuse in theory, potentially with refurbishment.
Get Ṁ600 play money
More related questions
Related questions
Will SpaceX land a space-flown Starship in 2024?
5% chance
SpaceX Starship Orbit in 2023? (No) → SpaceX Mars Mission by 2030?
38% chance
Will SpaceX land anything on Mars by 2030?
40% chance
Will SpaceX land a Super Heavy booster, as part of a space-bound flight, in 2024?
36% chance
Will a SpaceX-branded mission land people on Mars prior to Jan 1, 2050?
33% chance
Non-SpaceX reusable first stage by 2025?
31% chance
Will SpaceX send a Starship to Mars before 2028?
33% chance
Will SpaceX successfully land Starship on Mars before January 1st 2030?
52% chance
When will SpaceX land humans on Mars?
2038
When will SpaceX land on the moon?