
Non-SpaceX propulsive first stage landing by 2025?
8
110Ṁ1142026
29%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This market resolves YES if there is a successfully launch to orbit of a rocket not built by SpaceX with the first stage landing intact, by the close date.
The landing must be propulsive - parachutes or gliding to a runway are not allowed.
The market will resolve as soon as the landing happens. It does not actually need to be reused, just intact enough to reuse in theory, potentially with refurbishment.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
Related questions
Related questions
Will SpaceX launch a reused Super Heavy rocket booster successfully by the end of 2025?
72% chance
Which of these will successfully land on the Moon in 2025?
When will SpaceX first reuse Superheavy (Starship 1st stage)?
Non-SpaceX reusable first stage by 2025?
80% chance
Will SpaceX re-fly a Starship upper stage in 2025? (Everyday Astronaut 2025 Predictions)
7% chance
Will SpaceX successfully catch the Starship upper stage in 2025? (Everyday Astronaut 2025 Predictions)
80% chance
Will Elon Musk's SpaceX Land Anything Fully Functional According on Mars during 2025?
2% chance
Will SpaceX put their HLS lander on the Moon by end of 2025?
11% chance
Will China successfully propulsively land a rocket first stage before 2027?
67% chance
Will anyone propulsively land an orbital-class rocket booster within a decade of SpaceX?
45% chance