This market resolves YES if there is a successful launch to orbit of a rocket not built by SpaceX with the first stage landing intact, by the close date.
The landing must be propulsive - parachutes or gliding to a runway are not allowed.
The market will resolve as soon as the landing happens. It does not actually need to be reused, just intact enough to reuse in theory, potentially with refurbishment.
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@ProjectVictory New Glenn is launching NET November, they're trying another propulsive landing. Their approach has less explosions so people are betting on that. (Neutron also really wants to launch this year but it won't)
@ProjectVictory there's also a small but not insignificant chance of a Zhuque 3 propulsive landing, it seems like they're currently targeting November for their maiden flight and I gather they are aspirationally targeting a propulsive landing for that flight
It'd be their first attempt so they may not even reach orbit let alone land but from memory they have completed successful hop tests as well as having achieved orbit with the similar Zhuque-2 so it's definitely possible