Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, before January 1, 2027, there is credible evidence from reputable sources confirming that China has sold Surface-to-Air Missile (SAM) air defense systems to Iran. Acceptable evidence includes official government announcements, reports from established defense industry publications, or coverage by major international news organizations. If no such evidence is available by the specified date, the market will resolve to "No."

Background

China and Iran have a history of military cooperation, including joint naval exercises and defense agreements. (apnews.com) In 2021, the two nations signed a 25-year comprehensive cooperation agreement encompassing various sectors, including military collaboration. (apnews.com) Despite these ties, there have been no confirmed reports of China selling SAM systems to Iran in recent years. Notably, in 2025, reports indicated that Iranian cargo vessels were transporting missile propellant ingredients from China to Iran, suggesting ongoing military-related trade. (ft.com)

Considerations

While China has previously supplied military equipment to Iran, the sale of complete SAM systems would represent a significant escalation in their defense relationship. Such a transaction could have substantial geopolitical implications, potentially affecting regional security dynamics and international relations. Traders should monitor official statements and credible news sources for any developments regarding arms sales between China and Iran.