Will Angela Rayner return to the Cabinet before the next election?
3
100Ṁ62
2029
27%
chance

Resolution criteria

  • Resolves YES if, before polls close (22:00 UK time) on the date of the next UK general election (latest possible: 15 August 2029), Angela Rayner is officially listed by the UK government as a Cabinet member or as a minister who “also attends Cabinet.” Verification sources: the Cabinet list on the UK Parliament website, GOV.UK ministerial appointment notices, or Angela Rayner’s GOV.UK profile. Shadow Cabinet or party roles do not count. Acting/temporary appointments count if they appear on these official lists. Otherwise resolves NO at poll close. (commonslibrary.parliament.uk, members.parliament.uk, gov.uk)

Background

  • Rayner previously served in Cabinet as Deputy Prime Minister and Secretary of State for Levelling Up, Housing and Communities, appointed on 5 July 2024; she is no longer in those roles (listed as a previous holder, 2024–2025). (gov.uk)

  • The next UK general election can be called earlier but must occur no later than 15 August 2029 (five years after Parliament first met in July 2024, plus a 25‑working‑day election period). (commonslibrary.parliament.uk)

Considerations

  • Counted: any post shown under “The Cabinet” or “Ministers who attend Cabinet” on official lists. Not counted: Shadow Cabinet, party offices (e.g., deputy leader), Privy Council membership, or Cabinet committees alone. (members.parliament.uk, gov.uk)

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