Will a plan to connect Edinburgh to London via high-speed rail be approved before 2030?
7
110Ṁ1392030
17%
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'Approved' here means that a bill was passed in the UK Parliament, similar to the High Speed Rail (London - West Midlands) Act 2017
'High-speed' is here arbitrarily defined as trains travelling over 250km/h (to capture the difference between current fast rail in the UK and planned/operational high-speed rail, ie HS1 and HS2 phase 1. Notice that by this definition domestic services on HS1 are not high-speed)
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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