Will a Filipino, Chinese or US national be killed on or near the Second Thomas Shoal before 2025?
Basic
5
Ṁ165Jan 1
22%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
The Second Thomas Shoal is currently occupied by the Philippines but is claimed by multiple other states including China. Recently there have been several clashes between China and the Phillipines over the atoll. The US is a treaty ally of the Philippines
'killed' requires an physical act, specifically from one of the other countries mentioned in the question. In other words it doesn't count if someone dies for any other reason or they die in a way where it could be reasonably deemed that their own country killed them). It would count if another country took some action that clearly led to a death, ie a ship was sunk and survivors were not rescued.
e
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000
and3.00
Related questions
Related questions
Will a Filipino, Chinese or US national be killed on or near the Second Thomas Shoal before 2027?
51% chance
Will a Filipino, Chinese or US national be killed on or near Sabine Shoal before 2025?
16% chance
Will a Filipino, Chinese or US national be killed on or near Sabine Shoal before 2027?
64% chance
Will a Filipino, Chinese or US national be killed on or near Sabine Shoal before 2026?
50% chance
Will China and the Philippines have a conflict in the South China Sea that results in at least one death before 2025?
33% chance
Will China's Navy or Coast Guard seize or sink a Philippine boat by the end of 2024?
42% chance
Will a Taiwanese, US, Filipino, Japanese or Vietnamese servicemember die confronting the China's military before 2025?
14% chance
Will China occupy the Second Thomas Shoal before 2025?
15% chance
Will China occupy the Second Thomas Shoal before 2026?
44% chance
Will China occupy the Second Thomas Shoal before 2027?
47% chance