Resolution criteria

• Resolves YES if, by 23:59:59 Philippine Standard Time (UTC+8) on December 31, 2026, a commissioned Philippine Navy (PN) or Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) vessel sinks (founders/submerges or is declared a constructive total loss due to sinking) as a direct result of action by a Chinese People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) or China Coast Guard (CCG) ship (e.g., collision/ramming, weapons, water-cannon–induced flooding).

• Exclusions: civilian/chartered boats (e.g., Unaizah May series), Bureau of Fisheries and Aquatic Resources (BFAR) vessels, and intentional Filipino scuttling not directly caused by PLAN/CCG action. Groundings, capsizes, or severe damage that do not result in sinking do not count. If a vessel sinks and is later refloated, it still counts.

• Evidence: official PN or PCG confirmation or report, plus corroboration by at least two reputable outlets (e.g., Reuters, AP, BBC) or clear satellite/official imagery. Primary sources to check: PN site and PCG site. Secondary examples: Reuters Asia Pacific and AP News South China Sea coverage. (navy.mil.ph, coastguard.gov.ph, reuters.com, apnews.com)

• Otherwise resolves NO on January 1, 2026 (PST, UTC+8). If attribution to PLAN/CCG cannot be established (e.g., maritime militia/civilian-only incident, weather, accident), resolves NO.

Background

• Recurrent CCG encounters with Philippine vessels have included water cannon blasts, rammings, and dangerous maneuvers near Second Thomas Shoal and Scarborough/Bajo de Masinloc. Documented March 2024 and March–August 2024 incidents caused injuries and serious damage to PN/PCG or resupply craft. (apnews.com, reuters.com)

• On June 17, 2024, CCG personnel boarded Philippine boats supporting the Sierra Madre garrison; multiple sailors were injured and equipment seized. (news.usni.org, en.wikipedia.org)

• Pattern of confrontations continues in 2025 amid unresolved disputes despite the 2016 Hague arbitral ruling favoring the Philippines’ maritime claims (which China rejects). (reuters.com, herbertsmithfreehills.com, my.china-embassy.gov.cn)

Considerations

• “BRP” prefixes are also used by BFAR cutters; those do not qualify as PN/PCG ships here. (en.wikipedia.org)

• Many high-profile run-ins involve civilian-chartered resupply boats; these would not satisfy the criterion unless a PN/PCG commissioned vessel sinks. (apnews.com)

• Attribution matters: incidents involving the Chinese maritime militia or accidents without direct PLAN/CCG causation will not resolve YES. (reuters.com)