Will a Filipino, Chinese or US national be killed on or near the Second Thomas Shoal before 2025?
7
Ṁ90Ṁ981resolved Jan 3
Resolved
NO1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
The Second Thomas Shoal is currently occupied by the Philippines but is claimed by multiple other states including China. Recently there have been several clashes between China and the Phillipines over the atoll. The US is a treaty ally of the Philippines
'killed' requires an physical act, specifically from one of the other countries mentioned in the question. In other words it doesn't count if someone dies for any other reason or they die in a way where it could be reasonably deemed that their own country killed them). It would count if another country took some action that clearly led to a death, ie a ship was sunk and survivors were not rescued.
e
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Market context
Get
1,000 to start trading!
🏅 Top traders
| # | Trader | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ28 | |
| 2 | Ṁ28 | |
| 3 | Ṁ14 | |
| 4 | Ṁ7 | |
| 5 | Ṁ4 |
People are also trading
Related questions
Will a Filipino, Chinese or US national be killed on or near the Second Thomas Shoal before 2027?
51% chance
Will a Filipino, Chinese or US national be killed on or near Sabine Shoal before 2027?
61% chance
Will a Chinese navy or coast guard ship sink a Filipino navy or coast guard ship before 2027?
20% chance
Will China occupy the Second Thomas Shoal before 2027?
47% chance
Will China occupy the Second Thomas Shoal before 2030?
55% chance
Will a clash between American and Chinese armed forces result in at least one fatality before 2027?
20% chance
Will there be a conflict over the South China Sea between two claimant states by the end of 2035?
70% chance
Will a clash between American and Chinese armed forces result in at least one fatality before 2028?
20% chance
Will a clash between American and Chinese armed forces result in at least one fatality before 2029?
48% chance
Will a clash between American and Chinese armed forces result in at least one fatality before 2032?
83% chance