Resolution Criteria

This market resolves to the month in 2025 when China officially conducts military exercises near Taiwan specifically named "Strait Thunder-2025B." If no exercise with this specific designation occurs during 2025, the market resolves to "No 2025B exercise."

Background

China regularly conducts military exercises around Taiwan as demonstrations of force and to assert its claims over the island. In April 2025, China already conducted large-scale military drills around Taiwan called Strait Thunder-2025A involving significant naval and air forces, simulating attacks and blockades.

• Update 2025-12-28 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has temporarily closed this market to review ongoing events. A major military exercise appears to be occurring that is not called "Strait Thunder 2025B." The creator is evaluating how this affects the market resolution.