The US has for decades operated under the understanding that neither it nor its adversaries would use ICBMs to deliver non-nuclear payloads because they would be indistinguishable from a first-use nuclear strike*, which would mean their use would risk a nuclear response even before they hit. However, there is a growing school of thought that China may disagree with this doctrinally, and may not bind itself by the same restriction.

*clearly this statement can be interrogated

https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/International-relations/US-China-tensions/China-expanding-ways-to-target-continental-U.S.-Pentagon-report-says

Resolves NA if there is no war between China and the US before 2040.

Resolves YES if China uses Inter-Continental Ballistic Missiles to strike the continental US or Hawaii (not US Territories), and those missiles deliver non-nuclear payloads.

(Note that 'non-nuclear' includes biological and chemical weapons, if such a question becomes relevant)

Resolves NO otherwise.

War= consensus understanding. If there is a disagreement over whether a war has taken place, I will make a decision and if I am unavailable then market participants can nominate a mutually agreeable adjudicator. The guiding principle should be that war involves a 'period' of military conflict rather than a single incident or even a brief spasm of violence. Brevity might be compensated for by the rapid accomplishment of strategic or even tactical goals.

ICBMs= missiles with a range greater than 5,500km (approx)

The distance between China and Hawaii is longer than what is usually considered the max range of IRBMs which do not have a 'taboo' on non-nuclear payloads. In that sense this question should not be complex or controversial

The introduction of hypersonic delivery systems may recomplicate this, but I will not rule on whether they would count until we have a clearer understanding of what they will look like and how they will be used.

For total clarity: missiles launched from outside of mainland China would not count, even if they are ballistic and long-range.

• Update 2025-02-28 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Hypersonic Weapon Clarification

  • Hypersonic systems will only be considered equivalent to ICBMs if they resemble an ICBM when launched from China toward the US.

  • The assessment of whether a hypersonic weapon looks like an ICBM will include its flight trajectory, behavior, and any visual or operational characteristics that align with those of an ICBM.

  • All other resolution criteria (such as launch origin from mainland China and delivery of non-nuclear payloads) remain unchanged.