If China tries to invade Taiwan, will Australia become militarily involved?
If China tries to invade Taiwan, will Australia become militarily involved?
6
110Ṁ185
2040
39%
chance

Resolves NA if China does not attempt to invade Taiwan (before 2040)

Resolves NO if China does attempt to invade Taiwan and Australia is not involved militarily

Resolves YES if China does attempt to invade Taiwan and Australia is involved militarily

Involved militarily: clear reports that Australian forces attacked Chinese forces or vice versa

Chinese invasion: I think this is going to be obvious; there should be widespread consensus. An invasion does not need to actually take place*, so long as there is substantial evidence that a credible force to invade Taiwan's main island was being massed on the Chinese coast.

Generally speaking, while you can imagine various scenarios with limited military conflict between Taiwan and China that are not an invasion it's hard to imagine Australia being involved in anything short of that. However, I reserve the right to make judgements on whether a scenario constitutes an invasion or not. For this reason I will not bet in this market. If I am no longer active then market participants may appoint a neutral arbitrator if there is disagreement.

*we could imagine that US, Australian or Taiwanese actions might prevent it from actually happening

Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!

What is this?

What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
ṀWhy use play money?
Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
© Manifold Markets, Inc.TermsPrivacy