Manifold thinks Biden is 90% likely to be the Democratic Party nominee. Metaculus says it's 94%.

Meanwhile, Polymarket thinks this is only 78% likely. Other real-money markets are similarly low, with ElectionBettingOdds's average putting it at 71.4%.

In the 538 Politics Podcast this week, the 538 crew mostly agreed with current prediction market prices on other 2024 questions but universally agreed that Biden's chances were much higher than 78%. Nathaniel Rakich, who I might trust more than anyone else on this, said it should be 95%.

So why are the real money markets so low?

You can submit any explanation as an answer, and then people can bet the explanations they think are best to the top. In one week, all answers will resolve N/A and all trades, profits, and losses will be reversed. This market will be unranked, so that it cannot disrupt leagues even temporarily.

Hopefully, this format will function like a poll that is weighted by the amount of mana that people have and are willing to spend on it, and will produce more accurate results than an unweighted poll.

Please do not submit answers that are too similar to existing answers, or which are just bad jokes. I will N/A answers that I think are not worth the space they take up in the market. Good jokes may be allowed to stay up longer than bad jokes.

You'll also get unique trader bonuses for people trading on your submissions, and I do not believe these are reversed in an N/A. After the market ends, I will evaluate the submitted answers and award a 500 mana bounty to the submitted answer that I subjectively think offers the best explanation.