Who will be the top 5 in Manifold Masters League Season 10? [Resolves to 20% each]
resolved Mar 2

When season 10 locks in, everyone in the top 5 will resolve to 20%. This is a linked market, because I think those are more fun. You can submit more names, which will split off from other.

You can find the version for Diamond here: /Joshua/who-will-be-the-top-5-in-manifold-d

Get Ṁ600 play money

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GGWP! Two new markets for Season 11, both resolve to one option:

Season 11 market!

Higher market creation cost means more liquidity!

@Joshua when you say this will resolve to 20% for the top 5, what does that mean for payouts to traders?

Does that mean I’d receive a fifth of the payout I see listed next to what I spent on a user (assuming my position is correct)?

bought Ṁ10 @Joshua NO

@snazzlePop I believe that's correct, yeah. So you don't want to buy anyone over 20% because you're spending full price but you only get 20% of the payout if it resolves yes.

BayesianboughtṀ5@Lion YES

@Bayesian seriously, why?

@Lion You’re literally among the best bettors?! #2 right now!

@Bayesian yeah, but it's February 5th and the month has 29 days

@Lion 25% chance that you get to top 5 is a steal trust

wait but if you buy yourself down too much you can manipulate it by not coming top 5 on purpose that's no good

@Bayesian No, because @Joshua is boring and unranked this question. I've thought about it

@Lion oh i didn't mean league profit manipulation, just like you might stop competing when you're safely in 6th place so you dont' lose 1000 mana here

@Bayesian but I can manipulate this one anyways

I Can Do What I Want Parks And Recreation GIF

@Lion this means war

@Bayesian hey, i warned everyone. That's your own fault.

@Lion that's ok it's still good ev you won't be able to resist your own success

@Bayesian There is a small limit order on 5%

@Bayesian betty hurry up, @snazzlePop filled a lot

@Lion I stopped when I realized who I’m betting against.

Arrested Development Mistake GIF

@snazzlePop Honestly people are usually too pessimistic when predicting their own standings in these markets.

@Agh yes, fill my limit order, pls

bought Ṁ1,000 @Lion NO

sorry not sorry for everyone betting on me

bought Ṁ25 @Lion YES

@snazzlePop And here's a free tip for the future, since you can't afford to pay for it ❤: I am always right