What will have the most yes votes to make it stop existing: AI, Porn, or Social Media? [ACX Survey]
109
1.1K
3.9K
resolved Apr 13
100%98%
End Porn > End AI > End Social Media
0.5%
End AI > End Social Media > End Porn
0.4%
End Social Media > End AI > End Porn
0.4%
End AI > End Porn > End Social Media
0.1%
End Social Media > End Porn > End AI
0.6%
End Porn > End Social Media > End AI
0.0%Other

This market resolves based on the results of the polls below.

After market close, I will resolve this market based on the number of "yes" votes that each option has received in the order of "most # yes votes > medium # yes votes > least # yes votes".


I've set these polls to close at the same time as this market, on Saturday the 13th at noon PT.

If there is a tie, I will extend the polls for 24 hours.

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Well this was an interesting experiment! Thanks for everyone! Polls only cost 10 mana now, so go make some of your own!

bought Ṁ28 End Porn > End AI > ... YES

@Joshua this can resolve now - this market and the polls were 12 hours out of sync.

Same polls, different resolution rules:

i do think it's funny that if you went by percentages instead of raw "yes" totals, the result right now would be the exact opposite

nvm. it was recent action.

@gpt_news_headlines I mean, I already edited the title to be more explicit about the market measuring total yes votes and moved the resolution criteria from below the polls to the top of the description.

The market seems pretty rationally priced to me right now? Porn has 57 votes, AI has 52, Social Media has 47. Could still go any way I think, but the most likely two outcomes are the ones that are highest in the market.

sold Ṁ20 End Porn > End AI > ... YES

@Joshua Ok, maybe what I am missing is that I think potentially this market could be interferring with the individual markets. Ie, the flow of votes come from this one, rather than the other way around. Not sure if that was your intention.

sold Ṁ34 End Porn > End AI > ... YES

@Joshua The other issue is some of these ad hoc trades which look like fat fingers. Eventually I hope manifold will do something about that.

AI still has a lot fewer votes than the porn question. If we can get it to match porn in number of votes, it should be able to win

This is madness

@benshindel the social media site likes social media too much, I have to agree.

sold Ṁ103 End Social Media > E... NO

Have to bail. Pricing isn't converging on rational #s, or maybe it is and I am out of the loop :D

End AI is now ahead of End porn.

@PlasmaBallin Bit concerned about rigging the social media option. Not sure why it keeps getting voted up. Maybe Joshua could put something in the title.

This would have made an awesome poll, tbh. I mean it's a good market as well, but having to prioritize your wand waving might make more sense than having to decide to wave away one of the categories.

For the individual survey questions, you have to reasonably ask - what is porn? what is ai? what is social media?

But if you had to ask me, to do some kind of rank choiced voting on porn/ai/social media.....

@gpt_news_headlines I was thinking the same thing. My guess is that it would end up with people being most willing to end AI and least willing to end social media, based on how often the average poll voter would use each one.

reposted

Current market prices seem to not match with the actual poll results so far. Porn has them votes to ban it yet isn't the highest option in the market.

I think people might not be considering that this resolves on the total #of yes votes, not the % of people choosing those options.

The porn poll has the most responses in total, so it naturally has the most yes votes.

@Joshua Is this based on proportion of votes or total number? Proportion of votes is the only meaningful measure to use, but the description suggests that it's just based on total number.

@PlasmaBallin It's total numbers of votes, since I wanted it to be easy for people to keep count.

@Joshua Notably, despite having the largest absolute number of "Yes" votes, porn currently has the smallest proportion of people willing to end it.

@PlasmaBallin It also has the highest "see results" notably. I'm not sure that any one way of measuring this is strictly superior, because there's non-response bias. Particularly with all answers being public.

@Joshua Proportion of results isn't perfect, but I think it is strictly superior to "total number" because it actually means something, whereas "total number" is completely meaningless on its own. Also, doing it just by total number of votes mean I can manipulate it by encouraging people to vote on one specific poll so that it gets more votes.

bought Ṁ10 End Porn > End Socia... YES

@PlasmaBallin Yes, I think this is what's leading to the price mismatching. I initially assumed it'd be based on proportion as well and only until I had read the rules did I see yes vote magnitude.

@gpt_news_headlines I've edited to hopefully make it a bit more clear

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