Manifest 2024 will take place June 7th to June 9th in Berkely California. This market is for prop bets about the event! Note that all bets are about the conference itself and not the summer camp.
Add anything that you think would be
Fun to predict, might or might not happen
Reasonably simple to track whether it happened or not (nothing too hard to count)
Respects people's privacy (Let people make their own "will I get laid" markets, don't make one for them)
I intend to attend, and I'll resolve everything I can. But any staff or mods are welcome to resolve any options as well, as prop bet markets are hard for any one person to manage.
Market close will be extended as necessarily if the dates change.
For markets about who will attend, I've made this market:
/Joshua/which-users-will-attend-manifest-20
There's also this for just special guests:
Prize Market
1,000
3.00
despite attending manifest & not attending LO/SC, my profit in the two prop bet markets were ~basically the exact same
seems there's no alpha in actually knowing stuff, ignorance is bliss
@Ziddletwix I didn’t attend either and made a 10% profit here and a 100% profit on the LessOnline market just from betting No on everything
@Joshua this is correct. I did not put the humane ai pin on during manifest despite being asked to ... on a mostly unrelated note the charging case has been recalled for fire risk. But mostly i wanted to focus attention on American Politics Company
Reopening betting to incentivize accurate reporting of final three answers. Submissions are closed.
