In his latest post based on the Rootclaim COVID Origins debate, Scott concludes by saying:
If it helps, I’m currently working out terms for a 6-digit lab leak bet of my own (no guarantee this will come to fruition, most of these fall apart in the resolution criteria stage). I feel bad for not being willing to answer every possible lab leak argument going forward, but hopefully offering lab leakers a few hundred thousand dollars if I’m wrong will be a suitable consolation prize.
For now, I’m still at 90-10 zoonosis.
In the Rootclaim debate, both sides put up $100,000 and then two neutral judges decided whether whether Covid-19 most likely originated from zoonosis or a lab leak from gain of function research. In the Rootclaim debate, both judges found in favor of Zoonosis.
It seems likely that a debate organized by Scott will follow a similar format, although perhaps he will have someone other than himself arguing for Zoonosis or the debate might be held in text form. A debate in any format organized by Alexander with at least $10,000 of his own money will resolve this market.
This is a full multichoice market on all possible outcomes, you can also find a binary contingent market here:
I will not trade on this question.
@Bayesian I thought it was good to include Other since we don't know any details yet. I probably won't add more options if I can help it, though.
I think that win/lose/tie cover most possible outcomes in most possible forms of debate, or else the market can resolve to "no debate".