Manifest 2025 will take place June 6th to June 8th in Berkely California. This market is for prop bets about the event! Note that all bets are about the Manifest conference itself and not Less Online or Summer Camp.
Add anything that you think would be
Fun to predict, might or might not happen
Reasonably simple to track whether it happened or not (nothing too hard to count)
Respects people's privacy
I will attend, and I'll resolve everything I can. But any staff or mods are welcome to resolve any options as well, as prop bet markets are hard for any one person to manage.
Markets will generally resolve according to the common sense expectation of how they were intended, not on technicalities. For example, a temporary tattoo would not count for the crane tattoo option. Market manipulation is encouraged as long as it is pro-social. You should also expect liberal use of N/A resolutions in ambiguous cases.
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
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| 5 | Ṁ1,178 |
People are also trading
@Krantz I think this should have stayed N/A. It was originally resolved to N/A because I was unable to afford to attend Manifest as a general admission guest. I was only able to attend as a 'vendor/guest' because I committed to dealing 30+ hrs of the poker tournament. My obligations dealing made it hard enough to catch the couple of talks I managed to attend, let alone give a presentation.
Given those circumstances, coupled along with the fact that this prediction was disabled for such a long time, coupled with the fact that the person controlling this prediction had stake in the prediction, I'd really like for someone to take another look at the circumstances.
@Eliza The feedback survey asked this but I do not think the results are public. And I am not running any polls myself.
@Eliza oh last year I ran a market/poll, I can try again when I have a min to compile but anyone should feel free to do so in the meantime
@Joshua for all I know, as a potential trader, it might be sent AFTER the conclusion of Manifest (this week, for example), or be a simple Manifold poll but filtered to Manifest participants.
@AnT Oh wait, someone already resolved it before the poll was even posted. Oh well, I guess there's no reason to post a poll then!
@AnT when prop market creators have 100+ different options to resolve, it’s very reasonable (and necessary!) for them to be ruthless about N/A-ing options that aren’t easy/ready for them to resolve. If you don’t like that, I would recommend not participating in large prop markets
@JoeandSeth Re-resolving then! Let me know if any other misresolutions. As for the polls, we didn't get to see much of the feedback survey results so all N/A and I dont want bad incentives for hitpieces so same there.
@ms I personally meant something more effortful that was up for at least a day, not a short, phone-playing-music thing. I do appreciate the manipulation but I'm snobbier than the average person about music installations
@ian okay can we ask an art expert whether that was a music installation? if you’re certain of their response, I’d be happy to bet about it!