Will the dwarf planet question on my Manifold survey have the same result as the original survey?
Mini
5
56
resolved Oct 30
Resolved as
50%

I will put a question on my Manifold survey asking which dwarf planet is the best, with the same options as the answer choices in /JosephNoonan/which-dwarf-planet-is-the-best (The original question resolves based on a different survey). Will the two surveys have the same result for the most popular planet?

If either survey results in a tie, I will resolve to a probability equal to the smallest proportion of dwarf planets that won in one survey but not the other. For example, if both surveys ended in a tie between Pluto and Eris, I would resolve YES, but if one had a tie between Pluto and Eris, and the other resulted in just Pluto being the winner, I would resolve to 50% since only 50% of the dwarf planets that won in the first survey (Pluto and Eris) also won in the second. If the first survey had a tie between Pluto, Eris, and Ceres, and the second had a tie between Pluto and Eris, it would resolve 67%, since only 67% of the dwarf plants that won in the first survey also won in the second.

See Plasma's Manifold Survey for other questions about the survey.

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