22
306
785
resolved Aug 27
50%23%
Pluto (normie choice)
50%67%
Ceres (not like other dwarf planets, too cool for the Kuiper belt)
1.0%
Eris (bigger Pluto)
5%
Haumea (the stretchy one)
0.5%
Makemake (the one with a funny name)
0.5%
Gonggong (the other one with a funny name)
1.2%
Quaoar (has a mystery ring)
1.0%
Sedna (aloof, kind of distant at times)
0.5%
Orcus (D&D villain)
Get Ṁ600 play money

🏅 Top traders

#NameTotal profit
1Ṁ45
2Ṁ36
3Ṁ34
4Ṁ34
5Ṁ12
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bought Ṁ5 of Ceres (not like othe... YES

The final result is a tie between Pluto and Ceres, with 6 votes each, so both will resolve to 50%. It seems Pluto got the benefit of being the most well-known as the only former planet on the list, while Ceres had the benefit of the funniest description. The only other options that got votes were Haumea, Quaoar, and Gonggong, with one vote each.

I will be asking the same question again on my big Manifold survey (including the funny descriptions), and you can bet on whether they will have the same result here: /JosephNoonan/will-the-dwarf-planet-question-on-m. Note the handling of ties in the description of that one (I anticipated that a Pluto-Ceres tie could be a likely outcome here, given how closely they were trading most of the time).

I checked, and there are only 8 responses to the poll, despite there being 15 traders on this market (okay, 14 if you don't count the bots). Who traded but didn't vote?

I made another poll-based market:

bought Ṁ5 of Sedna (aloof, kind o... YES

man big fan of sedna but I didn't know about quaoar before!

Are people betting on Ceres because it's their favorite, or because they like the joke description for it the best?

No “your mom” option. This market has been canceled.

bought Ṁ10 of Ceres (not like othe... NO

Everyone's betting on Pluto, but Haumea is so much cooler

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