Will someone attempt to bring a ball pit to Manifest but be stopped by security?
32
590Ṁ12k
resolved Sep 25
Resolved
YES

See /Conflux/will-manifest-have-an-available-bal for discussion of this point. Supposedly, an organizer will ask security not to let anyone with a ball pit in.

This market resolves YES if I receive reliable reports that someone attempted to bring a ball pit but was prevented from doing so by security. It will resolve NO if I don't receive any such reports before close. I will not be at Manifest personally, so I will be relying on second-hand informaion.

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I'm sorry to go off topic, but I can't figure this out. How do you edit questions to include those nice small links with the percentage after them, like "See will manifest have a ball fit" link? I can only figure out how to embed large images of other questions, and can't seem to figure out where else I would ask.

@SteveSokolowski Type a "%", then the market title.

for the record:

  • someone tried to come in with a ball pit

  • i told security “tell them they can’t come in, because they have a ball pit”

  • security did so

at this point, market resolves positively. a ball pit was prevented from entering the premises.

this is what happened after that point (about 5 seconds later):

  • i told security that i changed my mind

  • i told security to let the ball pit through

  • security did so

We considered the attempt to have failed and finished with it after security stopped the person and prevented the ball pit from coming in. Five seconds later, a separate attempt succeeded

predictedYES

@saulmunn I think at this point we just need to see whatever video it is they took.

@TimothyBandors sure, idc — i don’t have any mana in this market.

@ms sent me M500 as a tip, and i’m happy to send that back/whatever if there’s COI concerns or anything.

@saulmunn CoI doesn't affect the resolution. I'll take this as sufficient for a YES, given what I said earlier about making multiple attempts. Though I am still interested to see the video.

predictedYES

@saulmunn oh my god

saul 🤝 @ms

this is an incredible plot twist

predictedNO

roblox death noise

predictedYES

An attempt to bring the ball pit in was prevented by security. We have a video.

@ms is it the same ball pit or a different one?

predictedYES

Should resolve to Yes

Mikhail Samin boughtṀ1,000YES

@ms lmao what did you do

To count as a stopped attempt, does there need to be a ball pit near the security, or is it enough for the security to prevent it on other ways?

predictedNO

@ms There has to actually be an attempt. If someone doesn't attempt to bring a ball pit because they are afraid security will stop them, that doesn't count.

@JosephNoonan If security says they don’t allow it, does it count?

predictedNO

@ms As in, they bring a ball pit, but security turns them back by saying they won't allow it?

@JosephNoonan As in, if they start the plan to bring the ball pit, but the security says it’s not allowed (eg on the phone to a place that’s ready to dispatch a ball pit to the venue). Does the ball pit need to be physically present?

predictedNO

@ms To be clear, this is a thing that actually happened and not just a hypothetical to split hairs in the resolution criteria, right?

I would say, if you had a ball pit and were planning to bring it, but then security called you so you decided not to bring it, that doesn't count because you never actually attempted to bring it. But if you were on your way to bringing it, but then got a security call and turned back, that would count, since then you were attempting to bring it.

predictedNO

@JosephNoonan does it count if the same ball pit was let in earlier but then later someone reattempted to bring it in and failed?

predictedNO

@Thunderstar Yes, and I would also count the reverse situation where someone tries to bring it in, fails, and then tries again later and succeeds.

predictedNO

@JosephNoonan ok, just clarifying, I was not there when this supposedly happened

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