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It's officially been more than a month since the original market resolved, and Levi has not been banned for a week.

Levi made their first poll since being unbanned!

Probability Levi does something ban-worthy even just this month seems larger than 10% to me.

Just realized that the description implies the ban has to start this month. @JosephNoonan could you change the close date to reflect this? I guess it should be Sept 7th.

E: just realized I misread the close date by a month initially, but my comment still applies.

@jskf I updated the close date to be exactly a month after Jack's market resolved (to the nearest minute).

We might not know the answer by then, though. If he gets banned on the last day we'll have to wait to see if the ban lasts 7 days.

@jskf I can always extend the close date again if that happens.

@JoshuaWilkes a gentle reminder

@JoshuaWilkes Yeah, hence why it hasn't resolved NO yet.

@JosephNoonan I just want to flush out a little more YES 🤭

Levi is no longer banned. The ban lasted about six days, so it was not long enough to resolve this YES.

@JosephNoonan Then why doesn‘t he resolve his capture the flag markets?

Pretty sure you can still resolve markets even when banned.

Meh. Maybe he will get another ban for not resolving his markets so at least this resolves to yes.

@jskf I dont know if thats true. There was someone else who was banned but couldnt resolve markets

@higherLEVELING I don't see anything related in the code: https://github.com/manifoldmarkets/manifold/blob/main/backend/api/src/resolve-market.ts#L102

@jskf He's referring to Mark Ingraham, who's "banned" in a different way.

@Mira gasp nice. flexing your prediction ability. That was exactly who i meant. Is he the only other user who was banned? Also, what has a head and a tail but no body. Don't google it, no cheating... not that you would.

what happened?

@jojomonsta I think because it's been more than five days and he's still banned, people are thinking the ban might last a full week after all. He was banned at approximately 5:35 PM (CT) on July 30 (based on the Discord update about his ban), so if he's still banned at that time tomorrow, this will resolve YES.

My sense is that people have overadjusted to this short ban. Maybe it's just that I don't understand Manifold moderation (which might not be my fault...) but it looks like this short ban was taken as an individual decision, whereas up until this point people had been betting largely on the understanding there was a collective decision making process underway as to whether to permaban him (my reading). Given this, I suggest that the likelihood of this current ban never being lifted, or of a subsequent longer ban being imposed, is still closer to the ~60% this was trading at before than it is to the new price of ~30%. The fact that the conditional market hasn't closed yet so the clock hasn't started should be a further little bump for this one.

Added the condition from the description to the title to avoid confusing traders who didn't read the description, since that condition is now likely to affect the resolution.

Levi just got banned. It's not enough to resolve this YES yet, since he needs to stay banned for at least a week (and Jack's market has to resolve YES), but it probably increases the probability.

EDIT: The ban is (at least for now) only meant to last 5 days. So it's not enough to make this resolve YES unless Manifold decides to extend the ban to a full week or re-ban him.

I assume that "within a week" is also retroactive?

@Joshua Within a month, but yeah, I don't see any reason not to make it retroactive. It's true that I wasn't thinking of that case when I wrote the description, but it would go against both the letter and the spirit of the market to not count it just because it happened before Jack's market resolved.

Ah, seems to be a 5 day ban. So... this might well be a no then?

@Joshua Oh, didn't see that. Yeah, that actually might make more likely to resolve NO than it was before.

It still resolves yes if he's unbanned, but then rebanned for a full week right?

@Joshua yes

Hmmm I think this is a difficult call then. He'd have to get unbanned after the 5 days, then be banned again in days 6-24 so that there can be a continuous 7 day ban within the 1 month period. Or does it count if he is banned on day 31, but it's for 7 days or more?

@Joshua The ban just has to start within a month of Jack's market resolving, so yeah, that latter case would count.