I don't think 80% of the probability mass of trump winning the election should be in the not-incarcerated state when the overall probability of him being incarcerated by the end of 2024 is ~50%. It'd get the base fired up to 11.

Just to clarify, this never resolves N/A. It’s either yes or no.

I think the question could be rephrased to make it clearer that it’s a conditional

@Khoja It’s a conjunction not a conditional

@JonathanRay Good to know—the description mentions a “flipped conditional,” so I assumed this question was meant to be a conditional as well.