Will at least one >80% subsaharan ancestry country score above Ukraine on PISA for at least one year before 2100 without mass genetic enhancement?
24
1.4kṀ1210
2100
30%
chance

Resolves N/A as soon as >5% of the population of Ukraine is genetically enhanced. >5% enhanced countries are not eligible to contribute to a Yes resolution.

Countries under 5 million population are not eligibile.

If PISA ceases to exist without leaving an obvious successor, I will choose a successor.

I'm choosing Ukraine because it's a rather low bar -- among the poorest in Europe and historically disadvantaged in many ways.

2018 pisa scores chart showing Ukraine slightly above US blacks (Apologies if you don't like Steve Sailer, but you can practice Bounded Distrust here)

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@JonathanRay Does any African country even do the PISA?

Anyway this is not a good way to operationalize HBD. If Kenya joins PISA and does the Shanghai trick to beat Ukraine it’s yes. If Ukraine remains poor and wartorn that affects the chance and so on. If no African country joins PISA it’s no:

@JonathanRay For what it's worth, Sailer did say that Kenya has relatively high test scores.

Much better question.

@DeanValentine Though, if Ukraine ceases to exist, you should have a contingency for that.

@DeanValentine If Ukraine ceases to exist we'll use the obvious successor. If there is none, because it got annexed into some other country, we'll use the regional data corresponding to Ukraine. If there is no such regional data, we'll use Serbia

predictedNO

Are there any PISA scores for countries with >80% subsaharan ancestry? I can't find any with 3 minutes of google

@jacksonpolack Not yet. There is a breakdown of US scores by race here, and Ukraine is slightly above US blacks (who average ~20% white admixture)

@JonathanRay 2018 pisa scores chart (Apologies if you don't like Steve Sailer, but you can practice Bounded Distrust here) https://twitter.com/steve_sailer/status/1202024716627668992

It's worth noting that US blacks are >20x richer than Ukrainians right now.

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