Conditional on China invading Taiwan, will any city get nuked before 2040?

Question

N/A if china doesn't invade taiwan.
compare to

(https://manifold.markets/embed/JonathanRay/will-any-city-get-nuked-before-2040)

Manifold Markets · Answer

Unlikely — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 17% chance (17 traders, as of Mar 23, 2026).