What is the actual P(doom by 2100)?
17
550Ṁ1650resolved Oct 12
Resolved as
27%1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolves early to market prob if the price has been consistently trading within a 6%-wide band for one week.
If it does not resolve early, it resolves to whether AI kills all humans by 2100.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ42 | |
| 2 | Ṁ2 | |
| 3 | Ṁ2 | |
| 4 | Ṁ1 | |
| 5 | Ṁ0 |
People are also trading
Related questions
Will my p(doom) be above 10% in 20 years (2043)?
35% chance
Will my p(doom) be above 10% in 10 years (2033)?
58% chance
What will Manifold's P(doom) be at the end of 2025?
30% chance
What will Manifold's P(doom) be at the end of 2026?
41% chance
Doom or Boom? Human Population by 2100
Will davidad meaningfully affect p(doom) by more than 3%?
6% chance
What will today's p(doom) be determined to be retrospectively by post singularity simulations?
12% chance
What is your P(doom)?
POLL
What will be the P(doom) of these individuals 6 months after ASI has been created but hasn't wiped out humanity yet?
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky publicly claim to have a P(doom) of less than 50% at any point before 2040?
23% chance