Will US life expectancy in 2050 be 100 or above?

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Edit 11/14/22: Refers to life expectancy at birth.

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Life Expectancy Forecasts

According to an article by the National Library of Medicine (National Centre for BiotechnologyInformation):

If death rates are reduced by 2050 because of continued and accelerated gains made against major fatal diseases, life expectancy at birth would rise to 83.2 for males and 89.2 for females by 2050. These forecasts are 3.6 percent higher than the Census Bureau's forecasts and 5.2 percent higher than the Social Security Administration's (SSA) forecasts. If death rates were reduced by 2050 by efforts to slow ageing, then life expectancy at birth would rise to 85.9 and 93.3 for males and females, respectively, figures that are 7.3 percent higher than the Census Bureau's and 8.8 percent higher than the SSA's. The Social Security Administration's middle-range forecasts indicate that in 2050 life expectancy will be 80.0 and 83.4 years for males and females, respectively. The Census Bureau (CB) forecasts that in 2050 life expectancy for males and females will be 80.9 and 85.3 years, respectively.

Link to source: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2888016/#:~:text=Life%20Expectancy%20Forecasts,-If%20death%20rates&text=The%20Social%20Security%20Administration's%20middle,%2C%20respectively%20(table%202).

I bet no. According to various forecasts, the approximate average life expectancy in the United States in 2050 will be 83.37 - 83.70 years with relative change +7% counting from 2022 Overall, although there is a global trend towards increasing life expectancy, which is due to many factors, no country is projected to reach an average life expectancy of 100 years even by 2100.



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@26a0 Thanks for quantitative data! Do you expect no singularity by 2100, or do you expect that, conditional on a singularity + humanity still being alive, the life expectancy would not change much anyway?

@26a0 I agree with the user's prediction that the US life expectancy in 2050 will not reach 100 years. My stance is supported by historical trends and a linear regression analysis using real data.

I ran a regression analysis on life expectancy data which I got from the United States spanning from 1960 to 2019, sourced from the World Bank (World Bank Open Data, n.d.). Applying linear regression to this data predicted a life expectancy of approximately 84.34 years in 2050 (Excel, manifold 2), closely aligning with the user's estimate of 83.37 to 83.70 years. The model demonstrated a strong fit, with an R-Squared value of 0.935, indicating that historical trends are a reliable predictor of future life expectancy.

To make a more accurate prediction, it would be beneficial to include factors like healthcare advancements and lifestyle changes. Therefore, we would be able to account for any potential deviations from historical trends.

In conclusion, while the projection of not reaching a life expectancy of 100 years by 2050 seems well-founded based on current trends, considering additional variables in future analyses could provide more comprehensive insights into how life expectancy might evolve.

World Bank Open Data. (n.d.). World Bank Open Data. https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.DYN.LE00.FE.IN

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