Conditional on humanity reaching Kardashev stage 2, what will be the primary source of energy when it does?
6
220Ṁ968
4000
81%
Dyson swarm
3%
Dyson sphere
3%
Hawking radiation from microsingularities
12%
Other

Market context
Futurism
Long-term Markets
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!
Sort by:

I just estimated that there’s no material strong enough for a Dyson sphere at 1au around the sun. (500Gpa/(0.0058m/s^2*2.7g/ml) << 1 au) so you’d have to build it all the way out at >2.5AU Much easier to construct a close-up Dyson swarm and use 1000x less material.

People are also trading

By 2060, will humanity harness and utilize energy on a scale approaching Type I on the Kardashev scale?
29% chance
By 2050, will humanity harness and utilize energy on a scale approaching Type I on the Kardashev scale?
10% chance
Will humanity get its hydrocarbon energy via solar-powered hydrocarbon synthesis in the next 20 years (ie by 2035)
32% chance
Will basedbeffjezos be alive to see humanity become a kardashev level one civilization
25% chance
Will human civilization build a Dyson Sphere before 2200?
57% chance
[Metaculus] Will solar power on Earth dominate renewable energy consumption before 2031?
80% chance
Will human civilization build a Dyson Sphere before 2150?
43% chance
What will be the world's top energy source in 2030?
Will a nuclear thermal engine be successfully used to power a spacecraft before 2035?
51% chance
Will Earth have space-based solar power at scale by 2060?
31% chance
© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms•Privacy