By 2060, will humanity harness and utilize energy on a scale approaching Type I on the Kardashev scale?
15
1kṀ540
2061
28%
chance
Question update: Title change(previously: By 2060, will humanity achieve Type I status on the Kardashev scale through global engery harnessing?), description update

YES Resolution:

  • This market resolves to YES if, by December 31, 2060, humanity has reached Type I status on the Kardashev scale, signifying the ability to use and store all of the energy available on planet Earth.

  • Reaching the Engery combustion of 5 * 10^20 Wh per year (current approximation of the amount of energy to be Type I civilization)


NO Resolution:

  • If by the end of 2060, there is no consensus or evidence that humanity has achieved Type I status on the Kardashev scale, the market will resolve to NO.

Verification:

  • The resolution will be based on widespread scientific consensus or announcements from leading global energy research institutions, as reported in reputable scientific publications or global news outlets.

Another Question with the deadline of EOY 2050:

0:

Technology
World
Science
Futurism
Energy
Kardashev scale
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!

People are also trading

What will be the dominant unit of economic power used by humans in 2040?
By 2050, will humanity harness and utilize energy on a scale approaching Type I on the Kardashev scale?
10% chance
Conditional on humanity reaching Kardashev stage 2, what will be the primary source of energy when it does?
Will humanity establish the foundations for a Type 1 civilization by the end of the 21st century?
55% chance
Will Earth have space-based solar power at scale by 2060?
26% chance
Will humanity build a Dyson Sphere/Swarm before 2040?
4% chance
Will humanity still exist in 2100?
85% chance
Will humanity get its hydrocarbon energy via solar-powered hydrocarbon synthesis in the next 20 years (ie by 2035)
32% chance
Will humanity survive until 2100?
83% chance
Will human civilization build a Dyson Sphere before 2200?
55% chance
© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms•Privacy