Resolution criteria

This market will resolve based on whether Andy Burnham has a documented, in-person meeting with any of the listed individuals between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, inclusive.

• Definition of "Meet in person": A face-to-face interaction, bilateral meeting, or joint public/private appearance where a direct conversation or physical contact (such as a handshake) occurs. Simply attending the same large-scale summit, conference, or legislative session without a documented direct interaction does not qualify.

• Verification Sources: Credible international or national news outlets (e.g., BBC, Reuters, Bloomberg, The Guardian), official press releases from the UK Government or the respective foreign governments, or verified official social media accounts of the individuals involved.

• Outcome Options: Each option will resolve independently to YES if a qualifying in-person meeting is verified to have taken place in 2026, and NO if no such meeting is verified by the end of the year.

The individuals included in the market hold the following offices in 2026:

• Donald Trump: President of the United States

• Emmanuel Macron: President of France

• Giorgia Meloni: Prime Minister of Italy

• Christopher Luxon: Prime Minister of New Zealand

• Anthony Albanese: Prime Minister of Australia

• JD Vance: Vice President of the United States

• Marco Rubio: US Secretary of State

• Vladimir Putin: President of Russia

• Benjamin Netanyahu: Prime Minister of Israel

Background

Andy Burnham, the high-profile Mayor of Greater Manchester, won the Makerfield by-election in June 2026, returning him to the House of Commons as an MP. Burnham's victory has immediately intensified pressure on UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer, with widespread media reports and political analysts positioning Burnham as the leading candidate to challenge Starmer and potentially succeed him as Prime Minister before the end of 2026. This rapid rise to national leadership contention dramatically increases the likelihood that Burnham will engage in formal diplomatic face-to-face meetings with foreign heads of state and senior international figures.