Does the RFK dropout and Venezuela debacle count as

• Markets are blatantly resolved incorrectly, in a manner that is widely regarded as fraudulent or grossly incompetent (rather than minorly incompetent)

@nikki Link?

@JonasVollmer https://x.com/Domahhhh/status/1828510819132547323

https://x.com/Domahhhh/status/1827113188799733944

https://x.com/Domahhhh/status/1820274098540277895

@nikki no, these don't seem obvious to me

Like, I think the resolution of these is pretty ambiguous. I think on manifold the correct move would probably be to cancel them rather than resolve differently

I just added a subsidy, boosted the market, and bought some YES (even though I think the probability is low) to get more pairs of eyes on this question, as I really care about the answer

UMA resolves markets. 6 people decide. How can you tell if there is fraud?

@MaybeNotDepends If they resolve markets in a way that's obviously false

"Any other major incident" - way too vague.

This should be four different markets.

https://manifold.markets/JonasVollmer/will-polymarket-fail-by-the-end-of?r=Sm9uYXNWb2xsbWVy

Will Polymarket fail by the end of 2023?

20% chance. Examples that would cause this to resolve to yes: Customers cannot withdraw their assets for ≥14 days (e.g. due to a hack) Files for bankruptcy in a way where customer assets are affected Markets are blatantly resolved incorrectly, in a manner that is widely regarded as fraudulent or grossly incompetent (rather than minorly incompetent) Any other major incident that would cause investors not to want to put their dollars on Polymarket in the future 2024 market: https://manifold.markets/JonasVollmer/will-polymarket-fail-by-the-end-of-a62e1d8ba6bf?r=Sm9uYXNWb2xsbWVy