Will Polymarket fail by the end of 2024?

Examples that would cause this to resolve to yes:

  • Customers cannot withdraw their assets for ≥14 days (e.g. due to a hack)

  • Major loss of customer funds (>1% of total assets held on Polymarket, or similar), not just a few individuals affected

  • Files for bankruptcy in a way where customer assets are affected

  • Markets are blatantly resolved incorrectly, in a manner that is widely regarded as fraudulent or grossly incompetent (rather than minorly incompetent)

  • Any other major incident that would cause investors not to want to put their dollars on Polymarket in the future

2023 market: https://manifold.markets/JonasVollmer/will-polymarket-fail-by-the-end-of?r=Sm9uYXNWb2xsbWVy

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I just added a subsidy, boosted the market, and bought some YES (even though I think the probability is low) to get more pairs of eyes on this question, as I really care about the answer

UMA resolves markets. 6 people decide. How can you tell if there is fraud?

bought Ṁ50 YES

@MaybeNotDepends If they resolve markets in a way that's obviously false

"Any other major incident" - way too vague.

This should be four different markets.