Will 2022 Atlas Fellows launch startups worth >$20 million by the end of 2023?
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แน€12k
resolved Jan 1
Resolved
NO

Will the 2022 cohort of the Atlas Fellowship (atlasfellowship.org, consisting of 128 talented individuals) co-found startups with post-money valuations that add up to more than $20 million by the end of 2023?

I will only count credible valuations (including valuation caps of Safe investments and angel investments that aren't obviously at an inflated valuation). E.g. if a well-known VC fund invests $1 million at a $20 million valuation in a Fellow-run startup this resolves YES. But if a Fellow mints 10 million crypto tokens and sells ten of them at $2 each, it doesn't count.

Startups that were already being co-founded or received investments prior to the creation of this market (or prior to joining the Atlas Fellowship) are included in the total amount. Startups that attained a high valuation but then failed are not included.

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predicted NO

I've been informed that this may resolve YES after all; will do some investigation and then report back and potentially re-resolve this!

@JonasVollmer any updates on this?

@Bayesian I asked on the Atlas Discord and nobody said it was resolved incorrectly so I think this was resolved correctly

if a Fellow mints 10 million crypto tokens and sells ten of them at $2 each, it doesn't count.

Huh? why would scamming mean not counting, wouldnt that money be more "real" than the valuation in the sense that as long as coinbase or opensea lets you withdraw to a real account / usd you very tangibly have it. Valuations in non-scam VC are more "legit" in various ways maybe, but not more definite and tangible. I don't understand this remark.

predicted NO

@Quinn If you only sell ten tokens, you have $20 that you can actually spend, and 20 million dollars on paper.

@EliTyre oh no this is terrible--- yes 200% the comment as originally written is totally correct. This is totally on me for misreading "sell ten of them" as "sell all of them". Massive L on my part

Startups that attained a high valuation but then failed are not included.

Uh how can you say this without precommitting to a few years between close and resolve??? It can take a really long time to know if a project is "succeed" or "fail"! You might be able to define fail in response to this comment tho.

predicted NO

Presumably startups that fail before the end of 2023 are the ones that don't count.

predicted YES

@JonasVollmer any notable updates in the last 5 months?

predicted YES

My understanding is current valuations add up to $1m+$3.5m+$7m = $11.5 million

@JonasVollmer What are these companies

predicted YES

@ArjunPanickssery I'm not sure I'm allowed to share the valuations of the companies publicly. But the Fellows can post them if they like!

predicted YES

@JonasVollmer it's currently 14.5m to the best of my knowledge

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