Will 2022 Atlas Fellows launch startups worth >$20 million by the end of 2023?

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Will the 2022 cohort of the Atlas Fellowship (atlasfellowship.org, consisting of 128 talented individuals) co-found startups with post-money valuations that add up to more than $20 million by the end of 2023?

I will only count credible valuations (including valuation caps of Safe investments and angel investments that aren't obviously at an inflated valuation). E.g. if a well-known VC fund invests $1 million at a $20 million valuation in a Fellow-run startup this resolves YES. But if a Fellow mints 10 million crypto tokens and sells ten of them at $2 each, it doesn't count.

Startups that were already being co-founded or received investments prior to the creation of this market (or prior to joining the Atlas Fellowship) are included in the total amount. Startups that attained a high valuation but then failed are not included.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

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predicted NO

I've been informed that this may resolve YES after all; will do some investigation and then report back and potentially re-resolve this!

@JonasVollmer any updates on this?

@Bayesian I asked on the Atlas Discord and nobody said it was resolved incorrectly so I think this was resolved correctly

if a Fellow mints 10 million crypto tokens and sells ten of them at $2 each, it doesn't count.

Huh? why would scamming mean not counting, wouldnt that money be more "real" than the valuation in the sense that as long as coinbase or opensea lets you withdraw to a real account / usd you very tangibly have it. Valuations in non-scam VC are more "legit" in various ways maybe, but not more definite and tangible. I don't understand this remark.

predicted NO

@Quinn If you only sell ten tokens, you have $20 that you can actually spend, and 20 million dollars on paper.

@EliTyre oh no this is terrible--- yes 200% the comment as originally written is totally correct. This is totally on me for misreading "sell ten of them" as "sell all of them". Massive L on my part

Startups that attained a high valuation but then failed are not included.

Uh how can you say this without precommitting to a few years between close and resolve??? It can take a really long time to know if a project is "succeed" or "fail"! You might be able to define fail in response to this comment tho.