Will any Atlas Fellow have a liquid net worth >100M by 2030?
41
6.2k
2029
54%
chance

By "liquid" I mean "can reasonably direct 100M of their own capital to whatever they want." / "not fake VC valuations."

EDIT: This includes donations/money spent in a personal capacity). See comments.

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Sold because I don’t want to lock up mana for 7 years

I suspect this market will stay mispriced because no one expects a payout. Some shorter term markets would be interesting though, e.g. $1M by EOY 2023.

predicts NO

@nmehndir I mean if you're counting illiquid net worth I'm p sure a bunch of atlas fellows alr have a net worth of over 1m (which will likely be liquid at some point before 2030)

I certainly hope not. having liquid net worth means you haven't taken opportunities to increase velocity of money altruistically that you could have. don't be the dragon hoarding a pile of gold, make the world better materially for humanity instead. even if you make a lot of money.

predicts NO

@L and remember, money is just power coupons, coupons for the future repayment of debts; you hold the world's debt in your hands by retaining money. don't make a habit of holding large amounts of currencies that are based on overissued debt, like fiat or bitcoin.

@L fwiw i think Uli is including donations made as part of this

Bet no because:
1) startups are probably the only way an atlas fellow can get $100m in 7 years

2) The market right now is not that good and will likely not be good for a while

3) For $100m to be liquid, an atlas fellow founded startup must be acquired or IPO
4) Acquisitions that net the founder $100m are v rare, and founding -> IPO will likely take ~7-10 years rn

5) Also, ~90%+ of atlas fellows are going to college, and out of those not going to college I think the number that are founding startups is 2-3 (correct me if i'm wrong here)

tl;dr: p(atlas fellow has IPO in 7 years) is probably ~20% max

Idt the markets being down point is particularly valid - that's just the cycle and I'd be surprised if they're not at an all-time high sometime in the next 1-2 years.

The college point is p good, I don't think any fellow going to college can reasonably achieve this, this stat basically hinges on a very small number of fellows

What about early employees? We seem to only be considering the possibility of an atlas fellow founding a $300m+ company, but what about them being an early employee at a 10B company - again fairly unlikely but worth considering

predicts NO

@NamanPushp Re early employees, a company would have to be worth a lot more than 10b for a founding employee to get 100m bc dilution

@NamanPushp I think the college point is the weakest point. Many will make startups on the side, or graduate in 2 years.