Jonah Krompart's calibration
Grade: F, Score: -11.97
Resolution probability
Probability after bet
Interpretation
- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when Jonah Krompart bet YES at x%, the question resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).
YES bets
NO bets
3 largest bets for each bucket
1%
3%
5%
10%
20%
30%
- Will there be a UPS workers strike this Summer?NOṀ150
- Will a notable Democratic politician be indicted on child sex abuse or child trafficking charges before the end of 2023?NOṀ124
- Will a notable Democratic politician be indicted on child sex abuse or child trafficking charges before the end of 2023?NOṀ100
40%
- Will a notable Democratic politician be indicted on child sex abuse or child trafficking charges before the end of 2023?NOṀ120
- Will a notable Democratic politician be indicted on child sex abuse or child trafficking charges before the end of 2023?NOṀ100
- Will Leagues be the most impactful new feature for Manifold in 2023?NOṀ53
50%
- Will a notable Democratic politician be indicted on child sex abuse or child trafficking charges before the end of 2023?NOṀ355
- Will a notable Democratic politician be indicted on child sex abuse or child trafficking charges before the end of 2023?NOṀ140
- Will a notable Republican politician be indicted on child sex abuse or child trafficking charges in 2023?NOṀ140
60%
70%
80%
90%