@traders 2024 version here

Ok, to all our fellow American manifolders that just returned from the investigative Thanksgiving dinners with extended family, out goes my question: do we got any relevant news and solid rumors that might move this market in the 31 days ahead?

Edit the title to reflect the rules

@AaronKreider Ok I added the word notable, is that better?

@ahalekelly Yes!

I will be betting so that both republican and democrat markets will be 50/50ish, as I am insane and believe all politicians love baby sex. This largely liberal market has been extremely profitable for me bc of it (I’ve already assumed it’s resolving yes)

This question is too broad. How many politicians are there in the US? How do you define "politician"? Does any official elected in a local partisan election qualify? County drain commissioners? City council members? Township clerks? That's an awful lot of people. And a ton of people are likewise indicted on child sex abuse or child trafficking charges each year. At least some are likely to be Democratic politicians, and others are likely to be Republican politicians, if you define those in the broadest terms. Or are you only concerned with national elected politicians? Or do you include current, past, or possible future candidates? Or are we really only talking about HIllary Clinton and John Podesta? If I spent enough time digging, I'm sure I could find an example right now of a Democratic politician who was already indicted in 2023 - and likewise, a Republican politician - if we understand politician in the broadest sense of the word.

@belikewater he answers below: household names + any current or former member of congress or governers.

@RobertCousineau Yes, I just saw that, thanks.

Yeah sorry, let me put that in the description

We don't have a good baseline to compare this market against. What is the base rate of such indictments?

This doesn't answer that, but I created a related market for comparison purposes:

Do local governments count?

@horse oh good question, no. I'll say only national household names and current or former governors or members of congress

@ahalekelly Ah, just saw this. It's still a bit vague, but better defined.

“QAnon is fanfic where all the bad stuff is true and all the ‘then the good guys won’ is thrown in to keep Boomers happy”

- overheard somewhere