Will the METR 50% Time Horizon be "ambiguous" at the end of 2026?

Question

Referring to this comment by Nikola Jurkovic:

I very roughly polled METR staff (using Fatebook) what the 50% time horizon will be by EOY 2026, conditional on METR reporting something analogous to today's time horizon metric.

I got the following results: 29% average probability that it will surpass 32 hours. 68% average probability that it will surpass 16 hours.

The first question got 10 respondents and the second question got 12. Around half of the respondents were technical researchers. I expect the sample to be close to representative, but maybe a bit more short-timelines than the rest of METR staff.

The average probability that the question doesn't resolve AMBIGUOUS is somewhere around 60%.

and response by Thomas Kwa:

Just for context, the reason we might not report something like today's time horizon metric is we don't have enough tasks beyond 8 hours. We're actively working on several ways to extend this, but there's always a chance none of them will work out and we won't have enough confidence to report a number by the end of 2026.

Will it end up AMBIGUOUS, as they forecast to be ~40% likely?

Resolves to their opinion at EOY, if available.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Likely — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 72% chance (25 traders, as of Jul 26, 2026).