Manifest X is coming to DC on November 8th. Tickets available at: https://manifestxdc.github.io/
But what will go wrong?
IMPORTANT: Following Skyler's previous markets (linked below), question will resolve proportionally to the top three things that go wrong. I expect to give the worst thing to go wrong 50%, second worst 30%, and third worst 20%. No one answer will win 100%. If an option shows odds above 50%, arbitrage that away.
In the unlikely event that only two things go wrong, third place will be the "Everything is fine, nothing is ruined (unlikely)" option. There is no way only one thing will go wrong, come on.
https://manifold.markets/SkylerCrossman/what-are-the-three-worst-things-tha
https://manifold.markets/SkylerCrossman/what-are-the-worst-three-things-tha
Note: I reworded Skyler's "fire department called" to "There is an emergency requiring police, fire, or ambulance response (not a hoax)" because I could imagine you people causing shenanigans otherwise.
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ394 | |
| 2 | Ṁ371 | |
| 3 | Ṁ366 | |
| 4 | Ṁ361 | |
| 5 | Ṁ341 |
People are also trading
I was actually worried someone would drunkenly try to break into the Embassy of Guinea based on an address mixup. I phrased it funny, but that wasn't a bit. Thankfully, everyone was well behaved and the Vienna Conventions remain in force.
Ok let's rules-lawyer this.
We sold out quickly, people missed out, and this was, in fact, sad.
Lost two chargers worth less than $500.
T-shirts were delayed but arrived in time.
All speakers showed
Very little was on schedule, but we were only ever delayed by 15 minutes, which doesnt seem sufficient for a resolution.
I am quite bummed to have forgotten about the out-of-context quote market until mid-afternoon.
Still on budget. Barely.
No war crimes. Yet.
I am willing to consider counter arguments in comments.
@JohnofCharleston Why was the capacity one resolved to only 50%?
Edit: Yikes, I did not read the description apparently. That's mainly on me ig, but It's very helpful when markets with counterintuitive details call attention to that fact in the title. Skylar's original "3 worst things" wording would also have been enough to prevent me from assuming this was a straightforward independent-MC market.
1. Tradition.
2. To allow the 50%/30%/20% payout matrix
3. I appreciate the elegant mechanism linking the probability of one option increasing to the probabilities of the other options going down.
4. It prices "Other" explicitly and well, in a way that gracefully handles new user-submitted options, thus giving a useful proxy for unknown unknown risk.
5. I enjoy over-complicating things.
#4 feels most important to me, but knowing myself #5 is probably doing some work too.
There's been some discussion of supporting "pick three and only three resolutions" dependent markets, but the user interface would necessarily be very involved. Doesn't seem to be a priority. Honestly, just declaring your payout matrix in the description seems easier from a UI perspective.
https://manifold.markets/JosephNoonan/will-manifold-add-multiple-choice-m
@realDonaldTrump This type of market used to be a lot more common but for some reason I haven't seen it as often lately.
It also returns good mana to the creator from the pool. 😎