Resolution criteria

ManifestxDC is a one-day forecasting and prediction market unconference held on November 8, 2025 in Washington, DC. This market resolves YES if, by December 31, 2027, at least one additional Manifestx event (beyond ManifestxDC) is successfully held in any city. This includes events branded as "Manifestx[City]" or similar variants organized by the same community, and requires at least some attendance by the greater Manifold community. Resolution is based on public announcements from organizers, event websites, or credible reporting. The market resolves NO if no such events are held by the deadline. “Successful” in this regard means attended by at least as many attendees as ManifestxDC. Any fuzziness on if an event is or is not Manifesty-enough or successfully-enough will be decided by me entirely on qualitative vibes.

Background

Manifold hosts an annual Manifest festival for forecasts, markets, and novel ideas held in Berkeley, California. ManifestxDC is a participant-driven unconference and afterparty hosted in two group houses near downtown DC, featuring talks, breakout sessions, and community building.

Considerations

The Manifestx format differs from the main Manifest conference—it is smaller, participant-driven, and designed around local community spaces rather than large venues. This lower-barrier model may make it easier to organize in multiple cities, but success depends on local organizers taking initiative. No public announcements of additional Manifestx events have been made as of November 2025.

This description was AI generated and then human edited.