I'm running the New York City Rationalist Megameetup, a gathering of dozens of rationalists the weekend of December 10th and coinciding with the New York City Secular Solstice. Inevitably, something is going to go wrong. Murphy is a rotten jerk.. the question is, what's the worst thing that's going to happen?
"Worst" here is entirely subjective in my opinion as organizer, but it will resolve to the worst three things that do come to pass.
I'm going to level with you. I'm going to actively attempt to sabotage answers that start looking likely by trying to prepare and prevent them. If the knowledge this market grants helps me avert a disaster, I'll find some way to send a bit of mana to the traders in appreciation.
I am aware this might incentivize a horrible assassination market style approach of writing something terrible and then ensuring it comes to pass. Consider the following: 1. I'm asking you nicely please not to do that and 2. you could instead write something minorly annoying and ensure that nothing worse happens.
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ93 | |
| 2 | Ṁ56 | |
| 3 | Ṁ50 | |
| 4 | Ṁ12 | |
| 5 | Ṁ12 |
People are also trading
@JohnBennett I'll take "Things you do NOT want to show up on the prediction market about your meetup" for 100 Alex.
@SkylerCrossman I helpfully specified the "(s)" so no one would be incentivized to add a second violation.
@SkylerCrossman For the record, the "Other" that won was an altercation on the subway trip between solsticegoers and a local New Yorker.
Internally I sorted the priorities and negative things right according to how I experience them, but man I totally can understand other people staring at that ranking and being confused.
@SkylerCrossman Confirming that I could add a new answer. However I think it's one option resolving (Not independant)
@CamillePerrin Empirically I seem to have been able to resolve to multiple answers, and even vary the percentage between them which is nice. I did percentage by a rough "how overall stressful and negative was that, from my perspective?"
@SkylerCrossman Ah right, I forgot this resolutions mode. What I meant is, there is another "multiple choice" question type, where you can resolve multiple to 100% (independently then), instead of splitting 100%. Hope you had fun at the meeting!