To qualify for a "YES" answer, Texas must either:
1. Elect a Democrat to a state-wide office (Governor, Comptroller, SCOTX Justice, Railroad Commissioner, etc.)
2. Elect a Democrat to represent the entire state of Texas in federal govenment (US Senator)
3. Send Democratic electors for the presidency because the population voted for the Democratic candidate. Faithless electors don't count. If Texas decides to split its electors, and that split delegation includes a Democrat, it counts.
Elected officials for a county, city, or house district don't count. It must be someone who represents all of Texas.
If this hasn't happened by the start of 2050, this question will resolve to "2050 or later".
1,000@dittopoop Given that this market is a bit looser in acceptance criteria, and the same range is currently sitting at 8% compared to 14% for that market, it does seem like there's an opportunity for some arbitrage.