Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to YES if the Democratic Party's nominee wins the state of Texas in the November 7, 2028, U.S. presidential election.

This market will resolve to NO if the Republican Party's nominee, or any other non-Democratic candidate, wins the state of Texas in the 2028 presidential election.

The market will resolve based on the official certified election results published by the Texas Secretary of State. If there is a recount or legal challenge, resolution will delay until the official results are finalized and certified by state authorities.

Background

Texas has been a Republican stronghold in presidential elections for decades, last voting for a Democratic presidential candidate in 1976 (Jimmy Carter). In recent election cycles, the Republican margin of victory has fluctuated:

• 2024: Donald Trump won the state by approximately 13.7 percentage points (56.14% to Kamala Harris's 42.46%).

• 2020: Donald Trump won by 5.6 percentage points against Joe Biden.

• 2016: Donald Trump won by 9.0 percentage points against Hillary Clinton.

While rapid population growth in metropolitan areas like Austin, Houston, and Dallas-Fort Worth has historically pushed some suburban counties toward Democrats, Republicans have made significant gains in other regions, notably among Hispanic voters in South Texas during the 2020 and 2024 cycles. The 2028 presidential election will represent the next major test of whether demographic shifts will ultimately flip the state's electoral votes.

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