When will the first white woman become president of the United States?
4
1kแน€541
2049
3%
2025
15%
2029
15%
2033
12%
2037
12%
2041
18%
2045
12%
2049
12%
Other

Some resolution criteria:

  • Just needs to be sworn in as president - does not have to be elected (e.g., VP elevated because of the death of a President counts)

  • I'm going to go with the common understanding of the person's gender and race (e.g., Kamala Harris is commonly identified as a woman of color, Hillary Clinton is commonly identified as a white woman). If this becomes controversial enough that I don't think I can make a judgement as an outside observer, I'll cancel the market (I don't anticipate this happening, but you never know).

  • I'll resolve the market as soon as they're sworn in, so the first year it happens it will resolve.

  • If you think something funny is going to happen in the off years, then "other" is your friend. I will probably subdivide it periodically as I think there's interest.

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