Will @saulmunn beat me at sock wrestling in 2025?
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Best of 3 (within a day)
Have to attempt at least 1 best of 3 per quarter in order for market not to resolve NA
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@TheAllMemeingEye Sock wrestling is a game played by at least two people, which consists of attempting to remove one or both of an opponent's socks. From what I witnessed, this specific version of sock wrestling began with one sock on, one off. Allegedly it's "high variance" (acc to Collin).
@JoyceWong we need a wacky version of the Olympics with sports like sock wrestling, thumb wrestling, egg-and-spoon race, staring contest etc.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.