Will Zvi Mowshowitz write at least 3 posts centered on avian flu/H5N1 in 2023?
Will Zvi Mowshowitz write at least 3 posts centered on avian flu/H5N1 in 2023?
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430Ṁ4238resolved Jan 1
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Resolves to YES if Zvi writes 3 (or more) posts by the end of 2023 that are focused on avian flu/H5N1 (or another name that is used to describe H5N1 or a variant).
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Zvi himself mentions in his recent post that he's unlikely to write 3 posts: https://thezvi.substack.com/p/h5n1
"After pasting that in, I sold the market on my own triple posting from 78% to 30%, despite being about to make post one. The way I see it, if I make a second post on H5N1, it means either human-to-human transmission or perhaps a huge economic crisis in the price of eggs and chicken. Neither seems all that likely. Otherwise, why would I need a second post? Certainly not a third one. Still, it’s generally never good practice to crash a market like this too much, in case others disagree with you, so you can get a better price and avoid huge mistakes."
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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