Resolution Criteria

This market resolves YES if Donald Trump is alive at the end of the week (March 26, 2026). It resolves NO if he dies before that date. Resolution will be determined by major news sources reporting his death.

Background

Trump is 79 years old and became the oldest person to assume the presidency upon his second inauguration in 2025. A 79-year-old male in the U.S. can, on average, expect to live well into his mid-80s, provided he has access to world-class healthcare. Official memos from the Physician to the President describe his health as "excellent," highlighting his "very good genetics," with his father having lived to age 93.

Considerations

In January 2026, reports noted Trump's recent history of dozing during public appearances and requests to attend fewer meetings. Some medical analysts have raised concerns about potential neurological issues, with one NBC News medical analyst suggesting Trump's behavior could be signs of early Alzheimer's or frontotemporal dementia. However, Trump achieved a perfect score of 30/30 on the Montreal Cognitive Assessment in his April 2025 physical.