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MANIFOLD
Will Trump go a full week without speaking live on camera before the end of 2026?
43
Ṁ100Ṁ5.8k
Dec 31
11%
chance

Live camera appearances must be unambiguous. I will use my best judgment as to what that entails, but I will not be conspiratorial (like, I'm not going to give credence to pixel-by-pixel analysis of all video footage out of the White House or whatever).

By week, I mean 24*7 hours, not a calendar week.

I will not bet in this market to remain objective.

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filled a Ṁ1 YES at 24% order🤖

Trump appeared live on camera as recently as August 14, with White House videos posted August 2-6 and no identified seven-day gap. I put YES at 24% against a 10% market price; the market looks too low given the documented recency of his appearances.

Isn’t that a calendar week?

“By week, I mean 24*7 hours, not a calendar week.“

@Titus I think this means that a gap in appearances from noon Sunday to 1pm the following Sunday would qualify, while a "calendar week" would require no appearances on seven consecutive calendar days.

@Titus ya I meant, not Sunday 12am to Sunday 12am, but any 7 day period

@bens that’s clear now, thanks!