Resolution criteria

This market resolves YES if the United States deploys ground troops to Iran. As of March 19, 2026, President Trump stated he has no plans to deploy American troops to the Middle East, though a White House official said there has been no decision to send ground troops at this time, but President Trump keeps all options at his disposal.

Resolution will be based on official U.S. government statements, Department of Defense announcements, or credible reporting from major news outlets (Reuters, AP, Washington Post, etc.) confirming the deployment of U.S. military personnel conducting ground operations within Iranian territory. This includes special operations forces, conventional ground units, or any sustained ground presence for combat, security, or logistical purposes. The market resolves YES if any U.S. ground troops are deployed to Iran for any duration. Temporary or brief incursions count as deployment.

Background

On February 28, 2026, the United States and Israel conducted joint military strikes in Iran, sparking the 2026 Iran war. The Trump administration is considering deploying thousands of troops to reinforce its operation in the Middle East as the United States military prepares for possible next steps in its war against Iran, with deployments potentially providing Trump additional options as he weighs expanding U.S. operations.

The Trump administration has discussed options to send ground forces to Iran's Kharg island, the hub for 90 percent of Iran's oil exports. Securing the strait could also mean deploying U.S. troops to Iran's shoreline.

Considerations

A U.S. ground mission, which would require sustained air support and a large ground contingent, could be risky and is likely to trigger a severe response from Tehran. A full invasion and occupation of Iran remains highly unlikely, as the scale, cost and military challenge would far exceed Iraq or Afghanistan, and Iran's larger population, difficult terrain and stronger state institutions would make any occupation even more complex.